上海市日均气温变化对医保儿童呼吸科就诊人次的影响  

The Impact of Daily Mean Temperature Variation on the Pediatric Respiratory Visits among Children Covered by Medical Insurance in Shanghai

作　　者：张姣艳[1] 王艺[2] 赵耐青[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院卫生统计与社会医学教研室,公共安全教育部重点实验室 [2]复旦大学儿科医院

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2012年第6期819-822,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30972551)

摘　　要：目的研究上海市日均气温与医保儿童呼吸科就诊人次的关系。方法运用广义相加模型分析时间序列资料,在控制时间的中长期趋势、星期效应、节假日效应、气象因素和大气污染物的混杂效应基础上,探索7日的日均气温与医保儿童呼吸科就诊人次之间的关系,从而预测未来的日就诊人次。结果观察日的日均气温对就诊人次的影响最大,观察日的前3日次之,其他几日的影响较小。7日加权气温与就诊人次的关系呈现一条非对称的曲线,在12.9℃左右,就诊人次最多。现有模型对未来1日的就诊人次预测效果良好。结论上海市日均气温变化对医保儿童呼吸科就诊人次有影响,可利用既往就诊人次、气象数据及大气污染物数据对未来的日就诊人次进行预测。Objective To assess the association between daily mean temperature and pediatric respiratory visits among children covered by medical insurance in Shanghai.Methods Generalized additive model（GAM） was used to analyze time series.After controlling for time trend,day of week,vocation,meteorological parameters,concentrations of air pollutants and other confounders if necessary,the effect distribution of temperatures of one week on pediatric respiratory visits among children covered by medical insurance in Shanghai is clarified.Moreover,based on the association between them,a forcast is made,too.Results Daily mean temperature of that very day has the most strongest impact,which is followed by that of three days before.Weighted temperature over one week affect pediatric respiratory visits among children covered by medical insurance,forming an asymmetric bell shaped curve with 12.9 ℃ as the threshold temperature.The fitted model has a favorable ability of forcasting.Conclusion Daily mean temperature variation has an impact on the pediatric respiratory visits among children covered by medical insurance in Shanghai.Daily historical data,including pediatric respiratory visits,meteorology and air pollutants information can be used to forcast pediatric respiratory visits in the future.

关 键 词：日均气温 儿童呼吸科就诊人次 医疗保险 时间序列 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R725.6[医药卫生—儿科]