基于CFS预报产品的广东省季节降水统计降尺度预测  

THE DOWNSCALING FORECASTING OF GUANGDONG SEASONAL PRECIPITATION BASED ON CFS FORECASTING RESULT

作　　者：李春晖[1] 林爱兰[1] 谷德军[1] 王婷[2] 潘蔚娟[2] 郑彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/中国气象局热带季风重点实验室,广东广州510080 [2]广东省气候与农业气象中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2012年第6期797-808,共12页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2005B32601007);广东省气象局项目(2008B05);973项目(2010CB950304);广东省气象科技计划项目(200902)共同资助

摘　　要：美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)开发的气候预报系统(CFS)预报数据资料有1981—2008年共28年历史预报数据,有实时的预报产品(含有未来9个月的预报值)。与NCEP资料相比,CFS能较好模拟季风环流的季节变化,能超前几个月模拟出ENSO发展和衰减时期的海温异常发展,可以用于广东季节降水预测。采用CFS预报产品开发基于最优子集回归和多元均生函数的广东季节降水的两种统计降尺度预报方法。经过分析检验,分别选取海平面气压场、风场和位势高度场显著影响区域作为同期预报因子,从多年(2001—2008年)的历史回报检验来看,虽然两种预测模型对于个别季节存在年内预报效果不稳定性,但综合而言,大部分季节降水的气候预测评分总体平均在64分以上。2009/2010年的实时预报检验表明,两种预测模型均达到较好的预测水平,降水预测结果与实况较接近。与基于NCEP观测资料的传统统计方法比较,CFS预报产品具有实时性、更新快等优点。基于CFS预报产品的降尺度统计方法可以超前三个季预报广东降水,丰富了传统统计方法,但预报的稳定性还需进一步改进。The Climate Forecast Systems （CFS） provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）, which cover 1981 to 2008, can forecast atmospheric circulation nine months ahead. Compared with the NCEP datasets, CFS datasets successfully simulate many major features of the Asian monsoon circulation systems and exhibit reasonably high skill in simulating and predicting ENSO events. Based on the CFS forecasting results, a downscaling method of Optimal Subset Regression and mean generational function model of multiple variables are used to forecast seasonal precipitation in Guangdong. After statistical analysis tests, sea level pressure, wind and geopotential height field are made predictors. Although there are unstable results in some individual annual seasons, both Optimal Subset Regression and mean generational function model of multiple variables are methods that can provide good forecasting after operational tests that score more than sixty points. CFS datasets are available and updated real time as compared with the NCEP dataset. The downscaling forecast method based on the CFS datasets can predict Guangdong＇s seasonal precipitation three seasons in advance, enriching traditional statistical methods while its forecasting stability needs to be improved.

关 键 词：CFS 最优子集回归 多元均生函数 广东省降水 降尺度 

分 类 号：P456.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]