影响我国省域第三产业发展因素的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of Factors that Affect China's Provincial Tertiary Industry Development

作　　者：曾黎[1] 李春[1] 

机构地区：[1]红河学院数学学院,云南蒙自661100

出　　处：《沈阳大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第6期80-84,共5页Journal of Shenyang University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(11161020)

摘　　要：根据2004—2010年中国大陆31个省、直辖市、自治区第三产业发展的相关数据,通过格兰杰因果检验和逐步回归法,筛选出最优的解释变量,建立了识别我国第三产业发展影响因素的多元线性回归模型以及双对数模型.分析结果表明,各地区经济发展水平的差异是影响我国第三产业发展不平衡的主要因素,第三产业增加值对第三产业法人单位数、城市化水平的变化较为敏感.Based on data of the development of tertiary industry of 31 provinces and cities in China's Mainland from 2004 to 2010,using the Granger causality test and stepwise regression,a multivariate model and a double logarithmic model were established that can identify the determinants in the development of China＇s tertiary industry,by selecting the best explanatory variables.The conclusion is that regional difference in economic development is the main factor causing the uneven development of China＇s tertiary industry;and the tertiary industry＇s increases are sensitive to the number of legal entity of tertiary industry and the level of urbanization.

关 键 词：第三产业 多元回归分析 双对数模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F719