多灾种风险评估研究进展  

An Overview of the Progress on Multi-Risk Assessment

作　　者：明晓东[1,2] 徐伟[1,2] 刘宝印[2,3] 杜鹃[1,2] 辜智慧[4] 葛怡[5] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]英国利兹大学地球与环境学院,英国利兹LS29JT [4]深圳大学建筑与城市规划学院,广东深圳518060 [5]污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,南京大学环境学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《灾害学》2013年第1期126-132,145,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2012CB955404);教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划项目(B08008);国家“十一五”科技支撑计划课题(2008BAK50B07)

摘　　要：随着灾害风险研究的深入,多灾种风险得到了越来越多的关注,多灾种风险评估理论与方法被逐渐提出并在部分区域得以应用。在厘定多灾种以及多灾种风险基本概念的基础上,系统综述了国内外有较大影响的多灾种风险评估方法及其分类体系。针对不同类型,分别选取典型案例进一步分析其评估流程和应用特点。在系统梳理当前评估方法的基础上,指出了多灾种风险评估存在灾种之间相互作用关系考虑不足、综合方法选择不够合理、难以计算多灾种绝对风险等问题,并对未来研究进行了展望。With the development of disaster risk study,more and more attention has been paid on multi-risk.Some theoretical works of multi-risk have been done and several methods for multi-risk assessment have also been developed.After clarifying the concepts of multi-hazard and multi-risk,the methods of multi-risk assessment which have been better known and used internationally or domestically are systematically summarized and the classification system of the methods has been discussed.For each category of methods,typical cases have been selected for further analysis about their assessment process and application characters.It is found that for the current multi-risk research work,the relationships between hazards have been considered inadequately,the approaches of integration are not very reasonable and the absolute risk of multi-hazard is difficult to be obtained.At last,future work of multi-risk research has been discussed.

关 键 词：多灾种 多灾种风险 风险评估 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]