三角模糊数故障树法在盾构隧道成本分析中的应用  

Application of Fuzzy Fault Tree Method in Analysis of Shield Tunnel Cost

作　　者：郑俊杰[1] 赵冬安[1] 林池峰 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]华润置地(武汉)有限公司,湖北武汉430013

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2012年第4期1-5,共5页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-06-649);武汉轨道交通技术创新专项资金项目(Ⅲ-JZ-16-52)

摘　　要：随着地下工程的快速发展,盾构隧道施工方法得到了越来越多的应用。然而由于人们对施工过程中的风险机理认识不够,以及评估隧道成本风险的方法过于简单,很多隧道因各种不利因素的影响使得建设成本较大地超出了预算。本文在全面分析的基础上,基于三角模糊数求解故障树的模糊成本重要度指标,并用该指标来评价隧道施工中各风险对总成本的影响大小。依据广佛地铁盾构隧道工程,利用三角模糊数故障树分析法计算得出了相应结果,对比表明该方法在分析风险对总成本的影响大小时,比传统的故障树法和概率、经济损失直接相乘法更准确,该方法具有可行性。With the rapid development of the underground engineering,the shield tunneling method is applied in more and more projects.Since the risk mechanism is not well understood,and the assessment method of cost risk of tunnels is oversimplified,and most of tunnels construction cost always exceeds the budget due to unnoticed conditions.Based on the comprehensive analysis,the fuzzy cost important index by using triangular fuzzy number is used to evaluate the influence of each risk on the total cost caused.The results from the Shield tunnel project in GUANGFO subway by the fuzzy fault tree analysis show that it has higher accuracy than traditional accident tree method and direct economic loss multiplicative method in analyzing the influence of each risk on the total cost of the tunnel.It is confirmed that this method has feasibility in this study.

关 键 词：盾构隧道 模糊理论 风险 成本 

分 类 号：U455[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]