基于GM(1,1)模型的铜绿山矿井水害预测与防治  

Forecast and Prevention of Water Disaster in Tonglushan Mine Based on GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：肖云[1,2] 田昌贵[2] 李元松[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学工程学院,武汉430074 [2]武汉工程大学环境与城市建设学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2013年第1期115-119,共5页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：本文针对铜绿山矿区复杂的水文地质条件,分析了其含水层和隔水层的分布特征以及矿井突水原因和充水因素,同时在分析矿井涌水影响因素复杂机理的基础上,建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,预测了未来涌水量的发展变化趋势,并针对矿区水害威胁源的实际情况,提出了在青山河流域、南北露采坑、井下同时开展综合防治水的措施,以为矿山的安全生产提供依据。Aiming at the complex hydrogeological conditions of Tonglushan mining area, this paper analyzes the layer distribution of aquifer and aquifuge, the causes of mine water inrush and the factors of water inflow. Based on the complex mechanism of mine water inrush, the paper builds a grey GM （1,1） model to predict the development trend of the water inflow. According to the actual situation of the threat source of mine water disaster, the paper suggests that for the safety production of coal mine, the enterprise should carry out the comprehensive prevention and control measures at Qingshan River basin,the south and north opencast pits and also underground at the same time. This research will provide a scientific basis for similar engineering.

关 键 词：铜绿山矿井 突水 涌水量预测 GM(1 1)模型 水害防治措施 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD74[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]