灰色预测模型在新型农村合作医疗基金筹资总额和支出总额预测中的应用  

Application of Gray Forecast Model to Forecasting Total Receipts and Expenditures of R ural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NRCMS)

作　　者：栾瑞[1] 张良[1] 任慧[1] 潘宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨医科大学附属第一医院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《中国初级卫生保健》2013年第1期16-17,共2页Chinese Primary Health Care

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学项目(11552164)

摘　　要：简要介绍灰色理论预测方法,建立了相应的预测模型GM(1,1)模型,经检验该模型的预测、模拟精度等级属于一级,预测结果可靠,可以用来预测某县新型农村合作医疗基金筹资总额和支出总额情况。应用GM(1,1)模型对未来3年的基金筹资总额和支出总额进行预测分析,为新型农村合作医疗制度的制定与调整提供有益参考。The paper briefly introduces the forecast method based on gray theory, and then establishes relevant forecasting model GM （1,1）, later verifies that the model has the forecast and simulation accuracy at Class 1 and generates reliable forecast result and can be used for forecasting the total receipts and expenditures of new rural cooperative medical fund of a county. Finally GM（l,1）model is used for the predictive analysis of total receipts and total expenditures of such fund in the coming 3 years to provide reference for the formulation and adiustment of new rural cooperative medical system.

关 键 词：新型农村合作医疗 GM(1 1)模型 灰色理论预测 基金筹资总额 基金支出总额 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]