基于可变模糊集铜陵市生态安全动态评价  

Evaluation of ecological security in Tongling City based on variable fuzzy set

作　　者：王乃举[1] 周涛发[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第1期82-87,共6页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41172086);国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项资助项目(201009041-03);安徽省优秀青年科技基金资助项目(08040106907)

摘　　要：文章依据事物或现象对立统一矛盾运动规律,构建可变模糊集评价模型,得出铜陵市2000—2009年生态压力、生态状态和生态响应时序变化规律,以子系统变异系数最小值条件构建系统耦合度评价模型,综合可变模糊集特征值得出铜陵市2000—2009年生态系统安全耦合度发展规律。结果表明:2000年以来,铜陵市生态压力下降趋势明显,生态状态和生态响应总体呈上升趋势,但上升幅度较慢;生态压力综合值时序变化表明铜陵市生态经济系统结构渐趋合理,生态状态综合值时序变化标志系统健康状态趋好,但仍有较大的改进空间,生态响应综合值反映系统智力和资金投入力度不够;生态安全耦合发展度等级较低,长期以来徘徊在"不安全"和"临界安全"等级,生态安全等级总体水平低。On the basis of contradictorymotion law among things or phenomena, the variable fuzzy set evaluation model is constructed, and the timing variation laws of the ecological pressures, ecological status and ecological response in Tongling City from 2000 to 2009 are obtained. The coupling degree evaluation model is also constructed based on the minimum coefficient of variation of the subsystem and the comprehensive variable characteristic value to calculate the ecosystem safety coupling degrees in Tongling City. The results show that, since 2000, the ecological pressures in Tongling City decline significantly, and the ecological status and ecological responses assume the trend of escalation, but the rise is slow; the sequential changes of comprehensive value of ecological pressures show that the eco- logical economic system structure of Tongling City is gradually reasonable, the sequential changes of comprehensive value of ecological status show that the health condition of the system of is getting bet- ter, but the comprehensive value of ecological responses reflects that the system are short of intelli- gence and funding; the ecological safety coupling development degree is lower and around the ＂unsafe＂ and ＂critical＂ ratings in the long term, indicating an overall low level of ecological safety.

关 键 词：可变模糊集 变异系数 耦合发展度 生态安全 铜陵市 

分 类 号：X171.4[环境科学与工程—环境科学]