城乡家庭直接能源消费和CO_2排放变化的分析与比较  

Comparison of Urban and Rural Household Direct Energy Consumption and CO_2 Emissions

作　　者：李艳梅[1] 杨涛 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学循环经济研究院,北京100124 [2]中国藏学研究中心社会经济研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第1期115-124,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71103012);北京工业大学人文社科基金(编号:X5104001201201);国家社科基金特别委托项目西藏项目(编号:XZ1213)

摘　　要：中国正处在城市化的快速发展阶段,家庭能源消费和CO2排放不断增长。本文以1991年-2010年为样本期,对城乡家庭直接能源消费和CO2排放的变化特征和原因进行分析,并对二者的差异进行比较。分析表明,城镇和农村户均直接能源消费和CO2排放以及总量变化,都呈现出以1998年为拐点的先下降后上升特征。原因在于1998年之前,直接能源消费强度下降与家庭规模缩小的节能减排效应大于消费水平提高的增能增排效应,而1998年之后,后者超过了前者。城镇和农村家庭直接能源消费结构变化促使户均直接能源消费CO2排放增加,原因在于电力的CO2排放不断增加。城镇的户均直接能源消费和CO2排放一直高于农村,但差距正在缩小,原因在于城镇直接能源消费强度下降、直接能源消费结构优化、家庭规模缩小所产生的节能减排效应逐步增大,抵消了人均消费水平提高所产生的增能增排效应。China is in a stage of rapid development and household energy consumption and CO2 emissions are growing. Here, we analyze the characteristics and causes of urban and rural household direct energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 1991-2010. We found that urban and rural household direct energy consumption and CO2 emissions per family, and totals in these, have been rising since 1998. The reason is that before 1998, the effects of declining direct energy consumption and family size were greater than energy increases and emissions growth. Urban household direct energy consumption and CO2 emissions are higher than for rural households, but the gap is narrowing. The direct energy consumption of urban households and total CO2 emissions are higher than in rural areas, and the gap is widening. With growing urbanization, the number of urban households is increasing and the number of households in rural areas is declining. Decomposition of urban and rural per household direct energy consumption and CO2 emissions showed that the per capita consumption level is higher in urban than rural areas. The smaller scale of urban households has always meant that average direct energy consumption and CO2 emissions are lower for urban households than for rural households. Direct energy consumption structural differences promote lower average urban household direct energy consumption CO2 emissions than for rural households. This is because the direct energy consumption structure of urban areas is better than in rural areas, especially for lower raw coal proportion.

关 键 词：城市化 家庭直接能源消费 CO2排放 城乡比较 分解 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]