基于Holter-Winter模型的我国工业水泥产量预测  

Forecast about the output of industrial cement based on Holter-Winter model

作　　者：陈华[1] 范坤[1] 冯长焕[1] 

机构地区：[1]西华师范大学数学与信息学院,四川南充637002

出　　处：《黄冈师范学院学报》2012年第6期20-23,共4页Journal of Huanggang Normal University

摘　　要：基于1990年到2010年工业水泥产量数据建立了Simple模型、Brown模型和Holter-Winter非季节模型,然后对比分析的得出了Holter-Winter非季节模型最优,并对未来几年工业水泥产量进行了短期的预测,为生产部门在生产中对战略结构的调整提供参考。Based on the production data of the industrial cement from 1990 to 2010,this article sets up the Simple model,the Brown model,and the Holter-Winter non-seasonal model.By contrasting and analyzing them,the result shows that the Holter-Winter non-seasonal model is the best one among the three.At the same time,the article makes a short-term forecasts about the future industrial cement production,and provides the reference for the production sector in adjusting the strategic structure.

关 键 词：工业水泥 Simple模型 Brown模型 Holter-Winter非季节模型 预测 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]