南极磷虾资源丰度变化与海冰和表温的关系  

THE ABUNDANCE INDEX OF ANTARCTIC KRILL AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO SEA ICE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

作　　者：戴立峰[1,2,3] 张胜茂[2,3] 樊伟[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学,海洋科学学院,上海201306 [2]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所,渔业资源遥感信息技术重点开放实验室,上海200090 [3]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所,农业部东海与远洋渔业资源开发利用重点实验室,上海200090

出　　处：《极地研究》2012年第4期352-360,共9页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(东海水产研究所2011T10);南极海洋生物资源开发利用(2010-2012);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201203018);南北极环境综合考察与评估专项(CHINARE 2012-01-06)资助

摘　　要：根据2003—2010年南极磷虾在南极半岛周边CCAMLR辖区48.2区产量数据,并结合该区域海冰和海表温度(Sea surface temperature,SST)数据,分析了磷虾产量的变化与海冰和SST的相关性。结果表明,48.2区的渔汛期为3—7月,主要作业时间为2—8月,产量约占该渔区年产量的99.3%。回归分析表明,磷虾的单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch per unit of fishing effort,CPUE)变动与海冰面积和SST面积变化关系明显。磷虾的CPUE与海冰总面积年间变化呈现显著的负相关(R2=0.64),与海冰密集度大于90%的海冰面积负相关系数最大(R2=0.71);年内变化关系则为一元二次多项式回归模型,CPUE随海冰面积的递增先增大后减小,与海冰密集度为60%—70%的海冰面积回归模型最好(R2=0.88)。磷虾的CPUE与SST为-2—3℃时的总面积年间变化没有相关性(R2=0.21),但与SST为1—2℃时的面积呈现显著的负相关(R2=0.83);年内变化关系也为一元二次多项式回归模型,CPUE随SST面积的递增先增大后减小,与SST为0—1℃时的面积回归模型最好(R2=0.94)。In this paper we examine the relationship between the changing Antarctic krill catch, sea-ice concentrations, and sea surface temperature （SST）. Data on the Antarctic krill catch in CCAMLR Area 48.2 surrounding the Ant- arctic Peninsula from 2003 to 2010, were combined with sea-ice and SST data. The results showed that krill fishing in Area 48.2 took place from February to August each year but the catch was concentrated from March to July, with production during this period accounting for about 99.3% of the annual catch. Regression analysis showed that the catch per unit effort （CPUE） of Antarctic krill was clearly related to the area of sea ice and SST. CPUE was nega- tively correlated with the total area of sea ice among years （ R2 = 0.64 ）, and the correlation was strongest （ R2 = 0.71 ） when sea-ice concentrations were greater than 90%. A second polynomial regression model looking at the re- lationship among months showed that CPUE initially increased, then decreased as the area of sea ice increased. The relationship was strongest （R2 =0.88） when the concentration of sea ice was between 60% and 70%. There was no negative correlation among years between CPUE and SST where temperature values were between -2℃ and 3℃ （R2 =0.21 ）, but there was a significant negative correlation between CPUE and SST where the temperature values were between 1 ℃ and 2 ℃ （R2 = 0.83）. Among months, the CPUE initially increased then decreased with the increasing SST, and the relationship was strongest （ R2 = 0.94） when SST was between 0 ℃ and 1 ℃.

关 键 词：南极磷虾 CPUE 海冰 海表面温度 回归模型 

分 类 号：S932.5[农业科学—渔业资源] P941.61[农业科学—水产科学]