基于一元非线性回归理论的矿井深部瓦斯含量预测  

Prediction of deep gas content in coal mine based on simple nonlinear regression

作　　者：崔洪庆[1,2] 张振安[1] 李德军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全科学与工程学院,河南焦作454000 [2]河南省瓦斯地质与瓦斯治理重点实验室省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第6期637-640,共4页Journal of Henan Polytechnic University（Natural Science）

基　　金：河南省基础与前沿研究项目(092300410211)

摘　　要：为了对矿井深部煤层瓦斯含量随埋深的变化形态做出新的研究和探讨,以某矿区煤层瓦斯含量与埋深数据为例,采用基于一元非线性回归理论的数学方法,提出一种适合该矿区煤层甲烷带内瓦斯含量随煤层埋深相关关系较好的双曲线型数学模型;在其有效拟合区间内,通过该数学模型对矿区井田内深部瓦斯含量进行预测.结果表明,该矿区井田内相同煤层埋藏深度下实测瓦斯含量同模型预测瓦斯含量能够较好吻合,说明该模型对本矿区井田内瓦斯含量的预测是可靠的.此外,通过吸附常数a值与模型极限值的比较结果,可进一步验证数学模型的预测精度.As the exploitation of a coal mine is gradually extending to the deep area, the environment of exploi- tation has become more and more complex, and gas disaster also becomes serious. It becomes particularly im- portant to grasp the change law of gas content in deep area. By making the correlation analysis of gas content and coal seam depth in the methane zone of a mining area, a fitting curve of hyperbolic was chosen. Through the mathematical models of the curve which can effectively fit the known data, the deep gas content of mine was predicted, and then the mining practice was guided. In addition, proposed new ideas might further vali- date the model~ accuracy through the comparison between the result of the adsorption constant value and that of the model limit.

关 键 词：甲烷带 瓦斯含量 吸附常数 非线性回归 双曲线 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]