1951-2010年中国季平均降水高精度曲面建模分析  

Surface modeling of seasonal mean precipitation in China during 1951-2010

作　　者：赵娜[1] 岳天祥[1] 王晨亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2013年第1期49-58,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950904);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(40825003);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41023010)

摘　　要：利用1951-2010年中国711个气象观测站的月降水资料,对多年季平均降水根据中国农业气候类型进行分区模拟。针对中国降水特点,首先分析了影响各分区降水的地理、地形因素及局部地形因素,利用多项式回归和逐步回归的方法对各分区降水进行了趋势拟合;在此基础上,采用改进的高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法,对各模拟区域去掉趋势后的残差进行迭代修正,并比较验证了模拟效果。同时,为保证HASM在边界附近的模拟精度,根据区域内站点间的距离,对每一分区设置一个缓冲区,将HASM实际插值区域扩展为缓冲区内的部分。模拟结果表明:HASM方法的模拟精度在不同区域不同季节内均比经典的插值方法模拟精度高。利用上述方法分析了同一季节各分区降水的分布特点,并模拟了不同季节内多年平均降水的空间分布状况,模拟结果符合我国降水的实际分布特点。The demand for spatial data sets of precipitation in digital form has risen dramatically in recent years.This paper describes a new surface modeling method,high accuracy and high speed method（HASM）,which has been successfully used for digital elevation model（DEM） construction and ecosystem changes.We explored the relationship between precipitation and geographical/topographical variables and local topographical factors,developed a polynomial regression model for seasonal precipitation in each region,and then used symmetric successive over-relaxation method and preconditioned conjugate gradient method to solve the matrix equations produced by HASM,which effectively improved the model.We used ArcGIS to create buffers with a specific distance around each subarea,and the actual computational domain expanded to the buffer area.Polynomial regression and residuals interpolation using HASM were applied to develop a gridded precipitation database for China in seasonal scales with a resolution of 1 km in longitude and latitude.We used precipitation data measured at 711 stations during the period of 1951-2010,with 80% of them used for surface development and 20% reserved for validation tests.Accuracy tests revealed that HASM is superior to the classical methods such as Kriging,Inverse Distance Weighting（IDW） and Spline.Precipitation surfaces generated by HASM showed good performance in precipitation research.Therefore,HASM can be considered as an alternative and accurate method for precipitation interpolation in China.

关 键 词：高精度曲面建模 季平均降水 多项式回归 插值 中国 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]