水足迹视角下区域水资源灾变的灰色拓扑预测  

Disaster Prediction for Regional Water Resources with Gray Topology Based on Water Footprint Perspective

作　　者：李健[1,2] 张吉辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津理工大学循环经济研究院,天津300191

出　　处：《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期1-4,共4页Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences

基　　金：天津科委基金资助项目(07ZLZLZT03500);天津社会科学规划基金资助项目(TJJJ06-01);天津市经信委基金资助项目(2010-KT-009(2));天津市高校人文社会科学基金资助项目(20082105)

摘　　要：为促进区域水资源的可持续利用,从水足迹视角构建了区域水资源灾变的拓扑预测模型,以2000—2009年天津市为例,从生产用水、生活用水、生态用水和污水排放等方面分别进行了水足迹计算,获得了天津市近10年的水足迹数据(每年介于60～80亿m3之间),并以此为基础数据,以α1=69亿m3、α2=70亿m3、α3=71亿m3为阈值,运用拓扑预测模型进行了年均误差率分别为0.055、0.041和0.045的灾变预测,得到了2010—2019年水资源足迹预测值,绘制了拓扑曲线,实现了预测数值的可视化,力图为区域水资源灾变预测和预防提供参考。To promote the sustainable utilization of water resources, the gray topology prediction model for regional water disaster was constructed from the perspective of water footprint. Water footprints of Tianjin in 2000-2009 were calculated as example according to the production water, domestic water, ecological water and sewage water. Data of water footprints in recent years were obtained （ between 60 -80 million m3 per year）. Disaster prediction whose average relative errors were 0. 055, 0. 041 and 0. 045 with gray topology method was made, according to thresholds of am = 6. 9 billion m3 , a2 = 7 billion m3 and a3 = 7 billion m3. Forecasts of water footprints from 2010 to 2019 were got. And the topology curve was drawn out in order to achieve visualization of prediction dates which aimed to provide a reference for disaster prediction and prevention of regional water resources.

关 键 词：水资源足迹 灾变预测 虚拟水贸易 灰色拓扑 天津 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]