基于多重环境时间相似理论的燃气轮机热通道部件剩余寿命预测方法  

Residual Life Prediction Method for Gas Turbine HGP Component Based on Multi-environmental Time Similarity Theory

作　　者：万安平[1] 陈坚红[1] 盛德仁[1] 胡亚才[1] 姚华[1] 陈辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学热工与动力系统研究所,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]山东电力工程咨询院有限公司,山东省济南市250013

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2013年第5期95-101,16,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

摘　　要：为了制定科学、成本合理的燃气轮机维修策略,解决当前燃气轮机运行维修管理费用高的问题,提出一种基于多重环境时间相似(METS)理论的燃气轮机剩余寿命预测方法。该方法引入同目标机组具有相似运行环境的同类型机组作为参考机组,利用经验运行数据,求解其在实际运行条件与基准运行条件下寿命评估参数(运行时间和启停次数)的相似系数。基于METS理论,通过计算目标机组在实际运行条件下的实际运行时间和启动次数,得到其在基准运行条件下的等效运行时间和启动次数,将计算结果与最大维修间隔比较,预测目标机组的剩余寿命。为准确计算目标机组在实际工作条件下的运行寿命,克服传统人工统计的不足,提出实时寿命和历史寿命的计算方法。最后,依据上述方法,开发了实现程序,并以某厂燃气轮机热通道部件的剩余寿命预测计算为例,验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。In order to reduce the high costs of gas turbine operation and maintenance management,a novel residual life prediction method for gas turbine based on multi-environmental time similarity（METS） theory was proposed to make scientific and reasonable cost maintenance strategy of gas turbine.This method has introduced a reference gas turbine which has similar operational environment and type of the object gas turbine to obtain similarity coefficient（running hours and start/stop cycles） of the reference unit life evaluation parameters under actual operation conditions and benchmark operation conditions by using experience operational data.Based on the METS theory,the object unit factored running hours and start/stop cycles under benchmark operative conditions were obtained through calculating its actual running hours and start/stop cycles under actual operational conditions.And then the object unit residual life was predicted by comparing with maximum maintenance interval.Furthermore,in order to accurately calculate the object unit actual running hours and start/stop cycles and overcome the deficiency of the traditional statistical manual method,real-time running life and history running life calculation method were proposed to realize the development program.Finally,a factory gas turbine HGP component residual life prediction is provided as the example to verify the scientific validity and feasibility of the prediction method.

关 键 词：燃气轮机 相似原理 多重环境时间相似(METS)理论 剩余寿命预测 

分 类 号：TK37[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程] TK38