基于多参数指数平滑法的我国物流运输业定量分析  

Quantitative Analysis of Chinese Logistics Transportation Industry Based on Multi-parameter Exponential Smoothing

作　　者：郑梦菲[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学,北京100871

出　　处：《物流技术》2013年第1期137-139,161,共4页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：选取了1991年第一季度至2010年第四季度我国公路运输、铁路运输和水路运输的季度数据,采用多参数指数平滑法分析全球经济危机对我国物流运输业的整体影响。在此基础上,探讨了其背后的经济根源以及政策含义。In this paper, on the seasonal data of the highway, railway and waterway transportation of China from the first season of the year 1991 to the fourth season of 2010, we employed the multi-parameter exponential smoothing method to analyze the overall influence of the global econom-ic crisis on the logistics transportation industry of China, on the basis of which we discussed the economic root of the influence and its strategic im-plication.

关 键 词：全球经济危机 物流业 Holter-Winter季节乘积模型 

分 类 号：F505[经济管理—产业经济] O242[理学—计算数学]