基于Bass模型的短生命周期产品供应链绩效评价研究  

Study of Performance Evaluation of Supply Chains for Products with Short Life Circle Based on Bass Model

作　　者：邹筱[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学商学院,湖南株洲412007 [2]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《物流技术》2013年第1期222-226,共5页Logistics Technology

基　　金：2011年湖南软科学基金项目(2011ZK3031);2011年湖南社科基金项目(11YBA099);2011年湖南工业大学科研项目(2011HSX18)

摘　　要：在对相关研究文献进行综述的基础上,通过分析短生命周期产品需求的相关特性,根据上一代产品的完整生命周期的销售资料建立了适合的Bass扩散模型预测产品需求,并提出一个以模拟液晶电视供应链为基础的研究架构,以每一绩效指标为基础,探讨各个实验变量(包括需求形态、订单宽限水平和各种不确定性等)对液晶电视供应链的影响程度,并根据不同的绩效指标评估各需求形态在不同环境中的表现,采用总利润、总产成品数量、达交率和流程时间等绩效指标进行了相关算例分析和验证。In this paper, on the basis of a review of relevant literatures and through analyzing the related characteristics of the demand for products with short life circle, we established a suitable Bass diffusion model to predict the demand of such products according to the sales documents of the entire life circle of the last-generation product and then proposed the study framework based on a simulated liquid-crystal TV supply chain. Next we discussed the level of influence of the various experiment variables （such as form of demand, order grace level and other uncertainties） on the supply chain on the basis of each individual performance index and then in view of the manifestation of different forms of demand under different environments, used performance index such as total profit, total volume of finished products, delivery rate and process duration, etc., in an empirical analysis.

关 键 词：Bass模式 短生命周期 液晶电视供应链 模拟分析 

分 类 号：F272.5[经济管理—企业管理]