珠江三角洲城市群灾害易损性时空格局差异分析  

Hazard Vulnerability Analysis of the Spatial Temporal Pattern Differences in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomerations

作　　者：唐波[1,2] 刘希林[1,2] 李元[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,中国广东广州510275 [2]中山大学广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,中国广东广州510275

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第1期72-78,85,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20110171110001)

摘　　要：在灾害环境变化的背景之下,城市灾害易损性研究成为新时期城市化进程和城市可持续发展研究的主题之一。应用贡献权重模型,从人口易损性、经济易损性、社会易损性和环境易损性4个方面,对珠江三角洲城市群17个城市的灾害易损性时空格局差异进行了分析。结果表明:珠江三角洲城市群灾害易损性评价因子的贡献率发生明显变化,由城市绿化率和道路密度向经济密度、建成区面积比和人口密度转移;时间上2010年城市灾害整体易损性变化速率高于2000年,空间上以广州和深圳为代表的东侧城市易损性整体有明显上升的趋势,而以恩平和四会为代表的西侧城市易损性有下滑的趋势或变化不明显,并且内圈层城市灾害易损性高于外圈层城市。这说明10年来,珠江三角洲城市群的经济和城市化进程得到迅速发展,可是城市防灾减灾能力亟待进一步提高;同时灾害易损性的时空格局反映出珠江三角洲城市群东西侧和内外圈层城市在人口、经济、社会和生态环境方面存在着较大的差异,这将成为珠江三角洲城市群实现优化整合、区域一体化面临的关键问题。In the background of hazard environment change, urban hazard vulnerability research is becoming one of topics on urbanization and urban sustainable development.Contributing weighted model was used in 17 cities of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration about the spatial-temporal pattern differences on vulnerability analysis from population vulnerability, economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and ecological vulnerability.The results showed that vulnerability assessment factors have significant changes in contribution rate,transfered from city greening rate and roading density to population density, economic density and ratio of built-up area;In 2010 the whole city vulnerability is higher than that of 2000, spatially, taking Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the representative of the eastern city vulnerability has a clear upward trend, while in Enping and Sihui as the representative of the Western City have declined or keep same, the inner ring layer of city higher than outer .This shows that nearly 10 years,Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations have rapid development in economy and urbanization,while urban disaster prevention and mitigation capacities need further improvement. Finally, there are many differences in population, economy, society and ecological environment of Eastern and Western, inner and outer circle in Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations.

关 键 词：城市易损性 时空差异 贡献权重模型 珠江三角洲 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] F127[经济管理—世界经济]