基于协整理论的民营经济电力需求预测研究  

Forecasting of Private Economic Power Demand Based on Co-integration Theory

作　　者：毛雪雁 孙黎滢 葛菊女 劳咏昶[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省电力公司电力经济技术研究院,杭州310008 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2013年第1期28-32,共5页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71071052);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(12QX23)~~

摘　　要：采用协整理论,以民营经济比重较大的台州为例,分析了民营电力需求的主要影响因素,通过单整检验,发现民营经济生产总值、固定资产投资与民营电力需求之间存在长期均衡的关系,并建立了长期的协整模型。在长期协整关系的基础上,利用误差修正模型,得到民营电力需求的短期均衡模型。还对模型的拟合程度进行了误差分析,短期均衡模型的拟合程度更高。最后,根据台州市"十二五"发展规划,依据所建立的长期和短期均衡模型,对台州市"十二五"期间民营经济电力需求进行预测。The development of private economy depends on electricity supply.And the contradiction between electricity supply and the increasing demand of the private economy power has becoming an important restricted factor to the private economy development.Therefore,this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term balanced relationship between the private economy and its power demand in Taizhou by using co-integration theory and error correction model.Through the single whole inspection,it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the GDP of private economy,fixed assets investment and its power demand.Besides,according to this co-integrating model,the forecasting of private economic power demand of Taizhou in twelfth five-year period is carried out.

关 键 词：民营经济 协整分析 误差修正模型 电力需求预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]