1980—2011年北京城区能见度变化趋势及突变分析  

Trends and Abruption Analysis on the Visibility in the Urban Area of Beijing City during 1980-2011

作　　者：余予[1] 孟晓艳[2] 张欣[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [2]中国环境监测总站,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2013年第2期129-136,共8页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB951600);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201303);国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项(201009001-4)

摘　　要：选取1980─2011年5个位于北京城区的国家级地面气象台站(海淀、朝阳、北京观象台、石景山、丰台)人工观测的大气水平能见度(下称能见度)数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析及突变检验法、滑动t检验方法对能见度进行分析,以了解其变化趋势和突变.结果表明:海淀和石景山站的年均能见度呈下降趋势,而朝阳、北京观象台和丰台站则呈上升趋势;能见度最大和最小变率分别出现在朝阳和丰台站,分别为2.50、1.11 km/10 a;北京城区年均能见度(对5个台站数据平均得到)呈上升趋势,变率为0.47 km/10 a.2007─2011年北京城区平均能见度为18.5 km.突变分析表明,海淀、石景山、北京观象台和丰台站的年均能见度均出现了突变,但突变类型不尽相同,而朝阳站和北京城区的年均能见度未出现显著突变.In virtue of Mann-Kendall rank statistics and the moving-t test, the trends and the abrupt variations of visibility were analyzed using data of manual air horizontal visibility at five surface meteorological stations from 1980 to 2011. All these stations are located in the urban area of Beijing City named Haidian, Chaoyang, Beijing Observatory, Shijingshan, and Fengtai station. The annual mean values of visibility showed decreasing trends at the stations of Haidian and Shijingshan, while rising trends were observed at the stations of Chaoyang, Beijing Observatory and Fengtai. The maximum and the minimum trends of the annual mean Visibility were 2.50 km/10 a at Chaoyang station and 1.11 km/lO a at Fengtai station, respectively. A slight increasing trend of the annual mean visibility （0. 47 kin/10 a） was detected in the average urban area of Beijing City. The mean visibility value of the whole urban area was 18.5 km from 2007 to 2011. The analysis results of the abrupt variations showed that the annual mean visibility at observed site appeared abrupt changes with different abrupt types except for at the Chaoyang station. The annual mean visibility showed no significant abrupt changes in the average urban area of Beijing.

关 键 词：能见度 变化趋势 突变 Mann—Kendall方法 滑动t检验 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]