基于情景的自然灾害风险时空差异多维表达框架  

Scenario-based multi-dimensional expression framework of spatiotemporal variability in natural disaster risk

作　　者：赵思健[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]北京师范大学,民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第1期10-18,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(40901274)

摘　　要：时空差异是风险的一种本源特性。自然灾害作为一种自然和社会现象,其风险时空差异的研究有助于微观地认识灾害规律性和风险动态性,为有效防范灾害与规避风险提供强有力的支持。综述了国内外自然灾害风险时空方面的研究,从情景出发构建了具有普适性的自然灾害风险时空差异的多维表达框架,提出了灾害风险时空差异评估技术框架,所提理论和方法可供后续应用研究参考。spatiotemporal variability is one of the inherent attributes of risks. As a natural and social phenomenon, risk of natural disaster shows significant spatiotemporal variability. The study on spatiotemporal variance of natural disaster risk is a good way to microscopically recognize the characteristics of natural disasters and the dynamic attributes of their risks, and thus plays an important role in disaster prevention and risk avoidance. In this paper, a review of studies in spatiotemporal risk of natural disasters was presented. In terms of scenario, a universal multi-dimensional expression framework of spatiotemporal variability of natural disaster risks was established and the technology framework of spatiotemporal variability assessment of natural disaster risks was presented. The theory and methodology proposed in this paper could give a reference to follow-up application research.

关 键 词：自然灾害 风险 时空差异 情景 多维表达框架 评估技术框架 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]