等维新息模型在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用  

The Application of Equal-dimension New-information Model on Amount of Gas Emission

作　　者：陈延可[1] 戴广龙[1,2] 李篷[1] 任卫兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学能源与安全学院,安徽淮南232001 [2]煤矿安全高效开采省部共建教育部重点实验室,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2013年第2期121-124,共4页Safety in Coal Mines

摘　　要：为了准确预测矿井瓦斯涌出量,介绍了灰色预测理论模型的建模方法与模型精度评定方法,阐述了采用等维新息模型进行矿井瓦斯涌出量分析的特点。并以顾桥煤矿1116(1)工作面相对瓦斯涌出量统计数据为实例,利用等维新息模型对其瓦斯涌出量趋势进行预测,分析了等维新息模型的合理维数,取得了较好的预测结果,并得到了具有实用价值的预测模型。In order to accurately predict the amount of gas emission in coal mine, this paper introduces the modeling method of grey forecasting theory model and the evaluation method of model precision, the characteristics of using equal - dimension new - information model to analyze mine gas emission are elaborated. Taking the gas emission quantity statistics in Guqiao Coal Mine No. 1116 （ 1 ） work-ing face of as an example, gray model is used to predict the trend of the gas emission quantity, the reasonable dimension of gray model is analyzed. Better results are obtained and the prediction model is practical.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 等维新息模型 瓦斯涌出量 预测 

分 类 号：TD712[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]