能源约束对北京城市化进程影响的计量经济模型  

Econometric Model for Restriction of Beijing Urbanization Process under Energy Constraint

作　　者：赵胤慧[1] 王文迪[1] 宋艺航[1] 谭忠富[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源经济与环境研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第2期236-239,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071053);北京能源发展研究基金资助项目(09Abjg303)

摘　　要：针对稳定的能源供应是经济发展的重要支撑及推进城市化进程发展的关键环节问题,在城市化进程评价指标体系的基础上采用主成分分析法(PCA)构建了综合城市化指数时间序列,结合二级三要素CES生产函数的机理形成能源约束的经济增长"尾效"模型,并通过城市化指数与经济增长的数量关系构建能源约束的城市化"尾效"模型。北京市统计数据的实证分析结果表明,能源约束对北京市经济增长的"尾效"为1.165%,对北京市城市化的"尾效"为0.510%,在北京市以第三产业为主导的社会背景下能源约束对北京市经济发展及城市进程的影响较小。As important support of economic development,stable energy supply advances the urbanization process,while the urbanization process is also limited by energy crisis.On the basis of study evaluation model of urbanization process,this paper establishes an evaluation index system for urbanization progress.And the method of principal component analysis（PCA） is adopted to establish time series of urbanized composite index.Based on the two-level nested CES production function,the economic ＂growth drag＂ model of energy constraint is revised.Then the urbanization ＂growth drag＂ model of energy constraint is eventually constructed on the basis of the regression model of the urbanized index and economic growth.By empirical analysis,the ＂growth drag＂ of the energy constraint on economic growth in Beijing is estimated to be 1.16%,and the ＂growth drag＂ of the energy constraint on Beijing urbanization is 0.51%.The results indicate that as tertiary industry is the leading industry of Beijing,energy constraint has little impact on economic development and urbanization process of Beijing.

关 键 词：计量经济 能源约束 城市化 尾效 北京市 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]