气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策  

Effects of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Yield and Its Adaptation Measurement in Northwest Plain of Shandong Province

作　　者：陈鹏飞[1,2] 于延春[3] 杨飞[1] 熊伟[4] 欧阳竹[1] 王吉顺[3] 王卷乐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,北京100081 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所禹城试验站,北京100101 [4]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2013年第2期211-219,共9页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所创新项目(201003002);农业部农业信息技术重点试验室开放基金(2011004);广东省中科院全面战略合作项目(2010B090300065,2012B091100256);资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室青年人才培养基金(O8R8B670KA)

摘　　要：气候变化会导致气候资源发生改变,从而引发粮食安全问题。耦合区域气候模式和作物生长模型,可定量分析气候变化导致的作物产量变动,探讨适宜的田间管理应对措施。研究以冬小麦作为研究对象,以我国粮食主产区之一的鲁西北平原作为研究区域,耦合MIROC-RegCM3区域气候模式和CERES-Wheat作物生长模型,开展A1B温室气体排放情景下,气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响及适应措施研究。结果表明,A1B气候情景下,该区域冬小麦潜在产量会有所下降;在现有管理措施的基础上,可通过培育对春化作用依赖较小的品种、适当提早播期、增加越冬水灌溉量等方式保证产量,减少年际间变异。该文研究结果可为应对未来气候变暖、确保粮食安全提供参考。Climate change, causing transformation of climate resources, results in food security problem. The coupling of regional climate model with crop growth model can be used to quantita- tively analyze crop yield variability under climate change, and to propose suitable field manage- ment for maintaining crop yield. Taking northwest plain of Shandong Province, which is one of the major food producing areas of China, as a research region, this study analyzed effect of climate change on winter wheat yield and its adaptation measurement under A1 B climate change scenario, by means of coupling regional climate model with crop growth model. The results shows winter wheat yield will decrease under A1B climate change scenario. Taking the measures of cultivating new variety with a character of less sensible to vernalization, appropriate advancing sowing date and increasing the amount of overwintering irrigation can yield security and reduce annual variability.

关 键 词：气候变化 冬小麦 产量 适应措施 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学] S162