灰色预测模型下隧道围岩稳定性的模糊概率分析  

Analysis of Fuzzy Probability for Tunnel Surrounding Rock Stability Based on Gray Prediction Model

作　　者：蒲勇[1] 刘立[1] 张丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]西华大学建筑与土木工程学院,四川成都610039

出　　处：《西华大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第2期108-112,共5页Journal of Xihua University:Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：现阶段预测围岩的稳定性多是运用定值判断法,但影响围岩变形的因素繁多且相互制约,要确定一个准确的定值十分困难。为了避免定值判断法中定值确定的问题,本文采用灰色理论预测结合模糊概率法对隧道围岩的稳定性和稳定概率进行分析计算,将稳定性问题数学化,能准确地反映围岩的稳定状况。研究结果表明:灰色预测模型下隧道围岩稳定性的模糊概率法预测围岩的最终变形情况准确,分析围岩的稳定性合理,能及时提供围岩的稳定程度和结构可靠性的安全信息,预见事故和险情,且其计算过程简便,方便在工程中采用。Fixed value judgement method is mostly applied in surrounding rock stability forecasting at present, but those factors that affect the surrounding rock deformation are so many and mutual restrictive, so that determination of an accurate definite value is ex-tremely difficult. To avoid the problem how to determine a fixed value in fixed value judge method, this article, based on the data col- lected from some tunnel monitoring and measurement, uses gray theory and fuzzy probability method to analyze and calculate the tunnel surrounding rock stability and stability probability, and makes stability problems mathematization, so that it can exactly reflect sur-rounding rock stability state. The results show that forecasting the final deformation of surrounding rock is accurate by using the gray theory, and analysis of the surrounding rock stability is reasonable. It can timely provide stable degree of surrounding rock and security information of structural reliability, predict accident and dangerous situation. The process of the calculation is simple, convenient in projects applications.

关 键 词：监控量测 灰色理论预测法 模糊概率法 隧道稳定性 

分 类 号：U456[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]