统筹城乡发展策略下基于生计风险诊断的农户后顾生计来源识别——以重庆市沙坪坝区中梁镇龙泉村为例  

On the Source of the Forward-Security of Farmers’ Livelihood Based on the Risk Diagnose of Their Livelihood in Coordinated Urban and Rural Development:A Case Study of Longquan Village

作　　者：张玉英[1] 王成[1] 王利平[1] 李晓庆[1] 蒋福霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第1期112-120,共9页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"统筹城乡视野下基于农户后顾生计保障的农村居民点整合研究"(11CGL056);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"基于农户土地利用意识的局地土地利用突变及其整合研究"(07JA630024)

摘　　要：农户后顾生计是改善民生的重要保障,研究其来源不仅可以厘清不同类型农户未来生计发展方向,且能为制定相应的支农惠农政策提供理论参考.研究运用主成分法与改进BP神经网络相结合,通过参与式农户调查建立农户属性数据库作为本研究的数据源,基于农户生计资产量动态划分农户,诊断其生计风险,从而识别不同类型农户的后顾生计来源.结果显示:(1)不同类型农户由于生计状况的差异导致其面临的风险各异,农业多样化发展型农户以自然风险和家庭风险为主,农业专业化发展型农户主要为市场风险,非农多样化和非农专业化发展型农户主要为市场风险及体制风险,兼业化发展型农户兼具各种风险;(2)不同类型农户生计风险程度差异明显,其大小顺序为:农业专业化发展型(0.92),农业多样化发展型(0.71),兼业化发展型(0.65),非农专业化发展型(0.55)和非农多样化发展型(0.46);(3)出于最大限度规避风险的心理思考及适应政策的需要,不同类型的农户后顾生计来源组合差异明显.The forward-security of farmers＇ livelihood is the important guarantee for improving people＇s livelihood, for which the research can be used to discern the developing trend of farmers＇ livelihood, and then make relevant polices and measures that raise subsidies for farmers and bring them tangible benefits so as to ensure the steady increase in farmers＇ incomes. Therefore, by means of ＂PAR＋3S＂ and utilizing geo-coordinate as the identification code, this paper sets up a geo-database of ＂household and land＂, and takes the geo-database for source and base on farmer＇s livelihood assets amount dynamic division farmers. Then this paper is going to diagnose farmers＇ livelihood risks and recognizes the source of the forward se curity of farmers＇ livelihood by applying the improved BP neural network on the basis of participatory farmer survey. The results are as follows： Firstly, the main livelihood risks of agricultural diversification development farmer type are natural hazards and family risks, those of agricultural specialization farmer type are market risks, those of non-agricultural diversification and specialization development type are market risks and system risks, while the part-time development type has all the mentioned risks in combina tion. Secondly, the arrangement in order of the risk degree of farmers＇ livelihood, from high to low, is 0.92 for agricultural specialization type, 0.71 for agricultural diversification development type, 0. 65 for part-time development type, 0.55 for non-agricultural specialization type and 0.46 for non-agricultural di- versification development type. Thirdly, to avoid the risk maximum extent and to adapt the policy, the different types of farmers＇ livelihood combination are obvious difference.

关 键 词：改进BP神经网络 参与式农户调查 动态农户分化 风险诊断 后顾生计来源 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]