城市事故灾难交通应急等级模糊综合评判模型及应用  

Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model and application of traffic grade on emergency in city

作　　者：王富[1] 李杰[1,2] 石永辉[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉工业学院土木工程与建筑学院,湖北武汉430023 [2]华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]武汉市公安局交通管理局科研处,湖北武汉430062

出　　处：《湖北大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第1期61-64,132,共5页Journal of Hubei University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划项目(2010GXS5D237)资助

摘　　要：为了及时判断城市事故灾难的紧急程度,采取有针对性的应急措施,需要对城市事故灾难交通应急进行分级,并给出判别标准和量化模型.鉴于事故灾难紧急程度的判断因素众多且难以量化,选取影响人数、范围以及路网和交通管理情况等主要的影响因素作为评判指标,根据规范和咨询专家将评判指标划分为4个层次;根据国家的相关规定,将城市事故灾难的交通应急等级划分为4级;运用专家法确定评判指标的评语集和等级评判的权重集,运用最大隶属度法作为等级评判标准,建立城市事故灾难交通应急等级模糊综合评判模型.最后,以武汉市汉正街火灾为例,对模型的适用性进行了校验.It was necessary to make traffic grade on emergency for quickly efficient and ordered traffic evacuation. Thus, different traffic grade could make corresponding to different manage departments and manage measures. Because many factors of disaster were numbered difficultly, the chief of factors were selected such as influencing scope and persons, road network, traffic manage as assessment indexes, it was founded that the fuzzy comprehensive assess model of traffic grade on emergency, and the aggregations of assess index and weight were set by the method of specialist, and the max degree of membership was selected as assess standard. At last, the fire of street of Han-zheng in Wuhan was regarded as an example to apply and certificate the model.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通应急等级 模糊综合评判 事故灾难 

分 类 号：U491.51[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]