气候变化背景下我国周边海域热带气旋灾害风险评估与区划  

RISK ASSESSMENT AND REGIONALIZATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER OVER CHINA’S SURROUNDING SEA

作　　者：李倩[1,2] 张韧[1] 姚雪峰[1] 葛珊珊[1] 邹恒琬[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院 [2]中国人民解放军73061部队

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2013年第1期143-148,共6页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41075045)资助

摘　　要：针对气候变化背景下热带气旋的演变趋势与灾害风险,探讨了我国周边海域热带气旋强度及频数的气候变化特征,从风险分析的角度提出了热带气旋灾害风险概念框架,基于风险评价指数法初步构建了风险评估的指标体系和数学模型,应用GIS技术实现了我国周边海域热带气旋灾害风险的等级区划。结果显示,在气候变化背景下,我国周边海域热带气旋频数和平均强度在近60年来呈现弱的下降趋势,但近10年来,台风及以上级别热带气旋频数和强度极值明显增加;热带气旋灾害高风险区位于南海北部和菲律宾海东部洋面。In order to understand the variation trends and disaster risk of tropical cyclone in the background of climate change, we investigated the the characteristics of intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones over China＇s surrounding sea. From the point of view of risk analysis, we considered a conceptual framework of tropical cyclone disaster risk and developed an index system and assessment model. The risk regionalization of tropical cyclone disaster in China＇s surrounding sea is carried out through GIS technology. The results show that the frequency and the extreme peak wind-speed of tropical cyclones were slightly declined during the last 60 years when the typhoon and strong wind were rising significantly in the recent 10 years. The most risky areas caused by tropical cyclone disaster include the north part of South China Sea and the eastern Philippine Sea.

关 键 词：气象灾害 热带气旋 风险评估 GIS区划 中国周边海域 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]