台风灾害综合风险评价研究  

Study on Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disasters

作　　者：周亚飞[1] 程霄楠[1] 蔡靖[1] 谢天生[1] 刘茂[2] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部水运科学研究院安全与应急技术研究中心,北京100008 [2]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《中国公共安全》2013年第1期31-37,共7页China Public Security

摘　　要：台风灾害是我国沿海及部分内陆地区经常发生的一种气象灾害,是世界上最严重的自然灾害之一。台风登陆后会带来暴雨、大风、风暴潮等灾害性天气,造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。因此,有必要对台风灾害的风险进行综合评价并进行等级划分,确定风险较高的地区,为决策部门的资源配置、防灾减灾规划提供参考和依据。本文综合考虑台风灾害的危险性、脆弱性、暴露性和当地的防灾减灾能力,构建了台风灾害的综合风险评价指标体系,根据历史统计资料等数据对各评价指标进行量化,利用GIS的空间分析功能将各评价指标按其权重进行叠加分析,得出台风灾害的风险等级区划。最后以浙江省为例,对台风灾害的综合风险评价进行案例应用研究。Typhoon disaster is a meteorological disaster which often happened in China＇s coastal and some inland regions, it is one of the world＇s most severe natural disasters. The rainstorms, strong winds, storm surges and other disastrous weathers associated with the typhoon disasters will cause heavy casualties and property losses. Therefore, it＇s necessary to have a comprehensive risk assessment and grade division of the typhoon disasters, to identify high-risk areas, then providing reference and basis for resource allocation and disaster prevention and mitigation planning. In this paper, the hazard, vulnerability, exposure, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of the typhoon disasters are considered comprehensively to propose a risk assessment index system. Each index is quantified according to historical statistics and other data, then an overlay analysis based on their weight is carried out using the spatial analysis function in GIS, and the risk rate zoning of the typhoon disasters is obtained. Finally, the Zhejiang Province is selected as an example to have a case study on risk assessment of typhoon disasters.

关 键 词：台风灾害 综合风险评价 GIS 风险等级区划 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]