安徽省近15年建设用地变化对碳排放效应测度及趋势预测——基于STIRPAT模型  

Measurement and trend analysis of carbon emissions from construction land changes in Anhui in the recent 15 years——Based on STIRPAT model

作　　者：张乐勤[1] 陈素平[2] 王文琴[3] 许信旺[1] 

机构地区：[1]池州学院资源环境与旅游系,池州247000 [2]池州学院经济贸易系,池州247000 [3]池州学院政法管理系,池州247000

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2013年第3期950-958,共9页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：安徽省教育厅重点研究项目(No.2010sk502zd);国家自然科学基金(No.41071337)~~

摘　　要：建设用地变化的碳排放效应是现阶段土地利用变化研究热点之一.因此,本文运用安徽省统计年鉴数据,采用建设用地动态度模型及IPCC碳排放计算方法,对安徽省1997—2011年建设用地与碳排放动态变化特征进行了分析.同时,基于STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘回归方法,揭示了建设用地对碳排放的边际效应,并运用SPSS软件对未来碳排放进行了预测.结果表明:研究时序内,建设用地与碳排放均呈增长态势,建设用地年均扩展速率为16.91%,碳排放年均增长6.61%,建设用地与碳排放正向效应显著;建设用地对碳排放的边际弹性系数为0.1194;惯性情景模式下,2015年、2020年安徽省建设用地扩展导致的碳排放将分别增至14472.42万t、19930.37万t;通过政策规制控制建设用地扩展趋势有利于抑制或减缓碳排放.本研究对了解安徽省碳排放变化趋势和指导土地利用规划有重要的现实意义,也可为省域尺度的建设用地碳排放效应研究提供范式借鉴.The effect of the construction land change on carbon emissions is currently the research focus of the land use change. In the study, we analyze the dynamic characteristics of the construction land and the carbon emissions in Anhui Province from i997 to 2011, based on Anhui Province Statistical Yearbook data, dynamic model of the use of the construction land and the IPCC carbon emission calculation method. The study reveals the marginal effect of the construction land on the carbon emissions by using the partial least squares regression method based on STIRPAT model and predicts the future carbon emissions using the SPSS software. The resu｜ts show that both the area of construction land and amount of carbon emissions grow up. The construction land has an average annual expansion rate of 16.91% but the carbon emissions have an average annual growth rate of 6.61%. In addition, the construction land positively correlates with the carbon emissions significantly. The marginal elasticity coefficient of construction land on the carbon emissions is 0. 1194. In the inertial profile, the carbon emissions of the construction land expansion will be 144724200t and 199303700 t in 2015 and 2020 respectively in Anhui Province. It is suggested to slow down the carbon emissions through policy regulation to control the expansion trends nf the construction land. This study is of practical significance in identifying the trends of the carbon emissions in Anhui Province and guiding the land use plan.It also provides a reference to the paradigm study about the effect of construction land on carbon emissions in the provincial scale.

关 键 词：建设用地 碳排放效应 测度 趋势 响应 安徽省 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X32