面向突发事件的民众负面情绪生命周期模型  

Public Negative Emotion Model in Emergencies Based on Aging Theory

作　　者：刘志明[1] 刘鲁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2013年第1期15-21,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(90924020);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(200800060005)

摘　　要：突发事件的发生容易引发网络社会情绪危机,对民众负面情绪进行监控预警以及平复是突发事件应急管理的关键环节。本文基于Aging theory模型,以预警为目的,设计了面向突发事件的微博民众负面情绪生命周期模型,并在此基础上,结合微博主题检测与跟踪技术以及微博情感分析技术,构建了基于微博的民众负面情绪实时监控预警框架。以25起突发事件为实验对象,对本文提出的模型进行了验证,实验结果表明本文提出的模型是有效的,可以实时正确的反映民众负面情绪的演化,结合预警模式可以给出实时的预警。An emergency can lead to the crisis of social emotion. Therefore, it is very critical for emergency agencies to monitor and manage public negative emotion during an emergency. Based on the aging theory, this paper proposes a public negative emotion model to monitor and manage emergencies to minimize the negative impact of emotional crisis on a society. By detecting microblog topics and analyzing microblog sentiment, this paper builds a warning framework to manage public negative emotion based on the negative emotion model. In the first part, we introducethe aging theory model and discuss its effectiveness. The evolution of the public negative emotion during two emergency events show that the aging theory is fit for modeling the public negative emotion. Next, we build a public negative emotion model based on the aging theory model, and describe the design of nutrition and energy functions. In the second part, this paper builds a public negative emotion warning framework based on the negative emotion model. This framework is comprised of four parts ： topic detection and tracking, sentiment analysis, emotion status analysis, and negative emotion warning. According to the characteristics of a microblog, we design a novel TDT algorithm and a Chinese emotion analysis algorithm. In addition, we calculate negative emotional status and discuss how to conduct the emotion warning. In the third part, the model is verified throughanalyzing 25 emergency events. The experimental results show that the model is effective, and it can correctly reflect the development of public negative emotion in a timely manner. We also discuss the advantages of the HMM-based model. Insummary, it is very important to analyze and monitor the public negative emotion during emergency events. Our proposed model can aid emergency agencies in improving the effectiveness of emergency management.

关 键 词：突发事件 负面情绪 微博 AGING theory模型 情感分析 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]