公路货运需求灰色-组合预测方法研究  

Road Freight Demand Forecast Based on Gray-combined Relation

作　　者：刘昱岗[1] 周本钰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《公路工程》2013年第1期111-115,共5页Highway Engineering

基　　金：四川省发展甩挂运输对策研究

摘　　要：现行公路货运需求的预测方法[1]是在现有公路货运量(或周转量)的基础上,通过公路运输需求曲线的趋势外延来描述其发展变化,本文称之为直接预测法。上述方法对公路货运需求的派生性以及不同货运方式之间的协同与竞争作用考虑不足。货运需求是由社会发展派生而来,它在很大程度上受到经济、人口等的影响;同时货运需求是公路还与其他货运方式(如铁路和水运等)共同承担的,它们是相互联合又彼此竞争的关系。考虑到以上不足,本文在灰色关联度的理论基础上,综合考虑公路货运需求外部因素,提出一种间接预测方法--灰色-组合预测法。文章首先给出了灰色关联的基本理论,并以此为基础提出灰色-组合关联的概念以及影响因素相对权重系数的计算方法,接着分析了公路货运需求主要的外部影响因素,然后利用该方法对现有数据进行了实例演算,最后通过演算结果分析,验证了该预测方法的可行性。Existing prediction methods for road freight demand,based on the known data of road freight traffic or the Road freight turnover,are mostly a kind of elongation of Road transport demand curve.They are all direct methods to describe its development and changes.The above method lacks of the analysis on derivation of the road freight demand and the relationship between different fright modes.The freight transport demand is derived by the Social Development,in large part by the impact of economic,demographic,and other;The freight transport demand road is also shared with other shipping methods（such as rail and water transport,etc.）.They are the cooperation relationship between the joint but also competing with each other.Taking into account the above shortcomings,this paper based on gray relational theory,Considering the demand for road freight external factors synthetically,proposed an indirect forecast method—Grey-Combined Forecasting Method.The article firstly gave the basic theory of gray relation.Based on the above theory,the paper Proposed the concept of gray-combined relation degree and the calculation method of relative weight coefficient of each relevant factor.Then the paper analyzed the major external factors that affect the demand for road freight.Next,the article use this method conduct a examples calculus with existing data of each relative factors.Finally,the calculation from results of the above examples calculus verified the feasibility of the prediction method.

关 键 词：公路运输 公路货运需求预测 公路货运量 公路货运周转量 影响因素 灰色关联度 相对权重系数 灰色-组合关联度 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]