三峡水库上游流域径流变化规律研究  

Research on Runoff Variation of the Upper Basin of the Three Gorges Reservoir

作　　者：祝杰[1] 陈森林[1] 李云涛 赵云发[3] 付湘[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]湖南电力勘察设计院,长沙410007 [3]三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌443133

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2013年第3期10-13,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179130)

摘　　要：以三峡水库上游6大干支流的9个控制断面为研究对象,针对不同长度径流系列,分析了径流统计参数、年内分配及丰枯变化规律;针对全年、消落期、汛期、蓄水期及枯水期5种分期,应用线性趋势线法和Kendall秩次检验法对径流进行了趋势分析,应用有序聚类法、滑动T及Mann-Kendall法对径流序列进行了突变分析。成果表明,宜昌断面消落期径流平稳、汛期径流有减少突变、蓄水期径流减少趋势显著、枯水期径流增加趋势明显,而汛期和蓄水期径流减小导致全流域总径流出现突变减小可能、且伴随逐渐减小趋势。经初步分析,造成这些变化的主要原因依次是流域气象要素变化、水利水电工程投入运行时充蓄死库容和水面蒸发等损耗增加、上游流域工农业用水量增加及水土保持和退耕还林等。研究成果可以为金沙江下游梯级、三峡梯级的水库综合优化调度提供参考。The statistical parameters of runoff, t annual distribution, wet and dry vananons are anaiyzea Daseu on different lengths of runoff series which come from nine control sections of six tributaries on the upper reach of the Three Georges Reservoir. Runoff trend of variation is analyzed by means of the Linear Trend Line Method and Mann-Kendall Method in the five seasons which are the full year, the drawdown season, the flood season, the water storage and dry season. Runoff mutation of variation is analyzed with the Orderly Clustering Method, Slide T Method and Mann-Kendall Method in the five seasons. The results of Yichang Station show steady runoff in the drawdown season, reduced mutations in the flood season, significantly decreasing runoff in the water storage season, evidently increasing runoff in the dry season, the decreasing mutation of the total basin runoff as reduction of runoff in the flood and water storage season. Through a preliminary analysis, the factors of results are the variations of watershed meteorological elements, increasing the water evaporation loss on water conservancy and hydropower project at dead storage, increasing industrial and agricultural water consumption, soil conservation and returning farmland to forests in upstream watershed. The results serve as a reference for the integrated optimal scheduling in the Three Gorges Cascade Reservoir and the Jinsha River Downstream Cascade.

关 键 词：分期 径流量 突变 变化趋势 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]