梯级水电站群联合调度多目标风险决策模型  

Multi-objective Risk Decision-making Model for the Joint Operation of Cascade Hydropower Stations

作　　者：纪昌明[1] 李克飞[1] 张验科[1] 谢维 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学可再生能源学院,北京102206 [2]中国水利水电出版社,北京100038

出　　处：《水力发电》2013年第4期61-64,94,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项资助项目(2009ZX07423-001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179069);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(10QX43)

摘　　要：在对联合调度过程中产生的各类风险进行综合分析的基础上,构建梯级水电站群联合调度风险评价指标体系及多目标风险决策模型;针对传统风险决策评价方法的不足,基于支持向量机的思想,将含有随机变量的风险型多目标决策问题转化为基于综合风险值最小的方案优选问题。溪洛渡-三峡梯级水电站群的联合调度实例分析结果表明,所建模型与方法能方便快捷地得到最佳决策方案,为梯级水电站群联合调度提供有力的技术支撑。Based on tile comprehensive analysis of risk factors in process of joint operation of cascade hydropower stations, the risk evaluation index system of joint operation and the multi-objective risk decision-making model are constructed herein. To avoid the defects of traditional evaluation methods, the thought of Support Vector Machine are applied in the evaluation, in which, the risk-typed multi-objective decision-making problem with random variables is transformed into a problem that seeks optimum scheme based on minimum comprehensive risk value. Appling the model to the joint operation of Xiluodu-Three Gorges cascade hydropower stations, the results show that the model can quickly choose optimal operation scheme and provide powerful technical support for formulating joint operation scheme of cascade hydropower stations.

关 键 词：水电站群 联合调度 多目标 支持向量机 风险评价 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学] TV697.12[水利工程—水利水电工程]