基于云理论和元胞自动机理论的城市配电网空间负荷预测  

Spatial Load Forecasting for Distribution Network Based on Cloud Theory and Cellular Automata

作　　者：刘自发[1] 庞铖铖 王泽黎[1] 李可[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]国家电网物资有限公司,北京市西城区100120

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2013年第10期98-105,13,共8页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219700;2009CB219703)~~

摘　　要：针对城市电网规划中电力负荷空间分布和时间动态演化预测难题,提出一种采用元胞自动机(cellular automata,CA)模拟城市土地利用的逐年发展过程进而进行城市配电网空间负荷预测方法。该方法基于云模型的知识,将影响因素的定性概念所具有的模糊性、随机性有机地结合在一起,构成定性和定量间的相互映射。综合考虑多种影响负荷发展的因素,运用云理论训练CA转换规则,制定多种转换规则来预测规划区域地块的发展程度。通过应用所提模型和方法对某规划小区负荷发展进行预测及实际对比,验证了其有效性。A cellular automata （CA） model to simulate the land developing for power load distribution and forecasting was proposed in urban power system planning. The knowledge representation based on cloud model was adopted to integrate the fuzziness and randomness of factors＇ qualitative concept, also constituted the mapping between qualitative and quantitative analysis in this model. To obtain the last conversion rules, the CA conversion rules were trained by cloud theory in consideration of several factors affecting power load development. The proposed method is tested by a given planning area and its validity is proved by comparison the forecasting results and their real value.

关 键 词：空间负荷预测 云理论 元胞自动机 转换规则 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]