我国货币政策数量效应与房价波动联动性分析  

A Study of the Correlations between the Quantity Effects of Monetary Policy and Real Estate Price Fluctuations in China

作　　者：李成[1] 郭哲宇[1] 张琦[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《云南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2013年第2期94-101,共8页Journal of Yunnan Normal University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：青海省社会科学规划项目<西部地区民间金融进入银行业的模式选择及政府监管研究>(12059);教育部"春晖计划"<西部地区民间投资运行状况及发展路径研究>(S2010010)资助

摘　　要：运用VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型对我国货币政策数量效应与房产市场动态联动性进行了实证分析。研究表明:货币政策数量效应是我国房价波动的主要影响因素,中央银行动用货币政策数量型工具对房地产市场进行调控,具有显著效果。货币市场与房产市场间波动层面上溢出效应显著且波动溢出效应剧烈,所以针对房地产市场的货币政策调控须兼具长期性与灵活性。The paper adopts the VAR-GARCH-BEKK model to analyze the correlations between the quantity effects of monetary policy and real estate price fluctuations in China. It concludes that the former is the major factor influencing the house prices in China. The results show that the Central Bank has obtained obvious achievements in controlling the house prices by using the quantity effects of monetary policy and there are significantly mutual mean spillover effects and volatility spillover effects between the two. Thus, the relevant policies should have lasting effects and flexibility.

关 键 词：房地产价格 货币政策 波动溢出效应 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]