基于可计算一般均衡的货运量预测模型  

A Freight Forecasting Model Based on Computable General Equilibrium

作　　者：戚铭尧[1] 杨坤河[1] 缪立新[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学深圳学院,深圳518055

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2013年第3期3-10,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"基于时间地理学的城市物流配送时空优化分析研究"(项目编号:70702003)

摘　　要：现有货运量预测模型大多未考虑货运交通成本及与之相关的政策因素的影响,导致许多货运量预测结果与实际值偏差较大,对诱增货运量预测不足。本文回顾了现有货运预测模型,并简要分析其优劣和适用范围,进而提出基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)的货运量预测模型。利用该模型对重庆市的货运量进行预测模拟,并与其它模型进行比较,结果表明本模型具有更好的预测效果。Freight cost and its related policy are usually excluded from current freight forecasting models,making estimation from current models inconsistent with the facts.This study briefly reviews the state of art of current freight models and their advantages and disadvantages;then a CGE-based freight forecasting model is proposed.The model is used to forecast the freight volume for Chongqing City.Other models are also computed based on the same case for comparison.It turns out that the proposed model outperforms the others.

关 键 词：货运量预测 可计算一般均衡(CGE) 货运交通成本 生产函数 

分 类 号：F272.5[经济管理—企业管理]