中国大麦供给分析与展望  

Analysis of China's Barley Supply and Its Future Prospect

作　　者：马欣[1] 田维明[1] 田志宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农业展望》2013年第3期51-55,共5页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部2010年农业国际交流与合作项目"当前国际农产品生产与供需动态监测分析"

摘　　要：大麦是中国持续进口的谷物产品。限制大麦市场供求研究的重要原因是中国缺乏大麦生产的完整数据,通过整理分析各种来源的文献资料,致力提供一组完整的长时序生产数据,并对影响中国大麦供给能力的因素进行分析。研究表明,生产比较利益低是中国大麦种植面积不断缩减、产量逐年下降的根本原因;单产水平不高和质量不佳使国内大麦供给能力显著不足,也是大麦持续进口的重要因素。预计短期内国内大麦供给将继续下降。Barley has been China＇s sustained import cereal product. Lacking of statistic data of barely production in China was the main restraint to analyze barely market. This article aimed to provide a long-time and relatively complete domestic barley production data, and discussed the key factors that influenced domestic barley supply by gathering and analyzing various litevature. According to this research, low comparative benefit in barley production was the basic reason for year to year decrease in barley sown areas and yields in China; low yield per unit area and poor quality made the supply capacity of China＇s barley inadequate significantly, which also were the important factor for importing barley constantly. China＇s domestic barley supply is projected to be continued decreasing in a short time.

关 键 词：大麦 国内供给 啤酒生产 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]