基于数学建模的养老金制度分析  

Pension System Analysis Based on Mathematical Modeling

作　　者：张帆[1] 吴良超[2] 陈延礼[2] 

机构地区：[1]宜宾学院经济与管理学院,四川宜宾644007 [2]宜宾学院数学学院,四川宜宾644007

出　　处：《宜宾学院学报》2012年第12期43-45,67,共4页Journal of Yibin University

基　　金：宜宾学院学生科研项目(2011X031)

摘　　要：针对我国养老保险金出现巨额"空账"的现状,通过利用养老金的缺口和养老金替代率等指标建立相应的数学模型,求得从30、40岁开始缴费到不同年龄退休时共6种情况下养老金收支状态以及养老保险金的缺口情况.提出了有利于解决我国养老保险收支不平衡问题的两种解决方案,分别为利用社会统筹基金进行投资管理和推迟职工退休年龄.利用社会统筹基金进行投资存在着较大的风险,倘若投资不合理,损失的将是人民的利益.故建议采用推迟职工退休年龄的方法,从而有效地缓解目前我国养老金出现巨额"空账"问题,保证我国养老保险改革的顺利过渡.The Chinese pension insurance system was analyzed to help solving the lack of funds.Using the mathematical model established from the index of pension gap and replacement ratio,and the pension’s income and expenses states and the pension’s gap on six different conditions where people submit the fee from different ages,such as,thirty years old,or various retiring ages,were obtained.Then two solutions are suggested： one is investing and managing a social pooling fund;another is putting off the retiring age.However,there is a great risk in the former one,for once the investment is unreasonable,and it is people who will lose their interests.For the reason given above,the later solution is recommended to effectively aid Chinese pension account,and ensure the endowment insurance system reforms in a smooth way.

关 键 词：养老金计算模型 目标替代率 双目标规划模型 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济] O141.4[理学—数学]