天然林五角槭木材纤维长度的时间序列分析  

Analysis of the Time Series of Wood Fiber Length of Natural Forest of Mono Maple

作　　者：张燕[1] 宋魁彦[1] 佟达[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学生物质材料科学与技术教育部重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业机械与木工设备》2012年第7期27-29,52,共4页Forestry Machinery & Woodworking Equipment

基　　金：黑龙江省重点攻关课题(GA09B202-07)

摘　　要：为获得时间序列模型对天然林五角槭木材纤维长度的数据拟合与预测效果,以其径向变异规律为研究对象,采用时间序列模型中的自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)进行数据拟合和中短期预测。研究结果表明,采用模型ARIMA(0,1,1)可以对天然林五角槭木纤维长度进行数据拟合与预测,模型拟合数据效果较好,5年短期预测精度高于10年和20年中期预测精度。In order to obtain data fitting and prediction effect of the wood fiber length of natural forest of mono maple based on a time series model, with the radial variation pattern of the time series model as a research object, the autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model （ARIMA） of the time series model is used for data fitting and medium and short-term prediction. The research result shows that the model ARIMA （0,1,1） can be used to realize the data fitting and prediction of the wood fiber length of natural forest of mono maple, with good model fitting data and five-year short-term prediction accuracy higher than ten-year and twenty-year medium-term prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：天然林 五角槭 木纤维长度 时间序列 ARIMA 

分 类 号：TS612[轻工技术与工程]