京、港、台和新加坡SARS流行室模型的新分析和群体防控度的提出与思考  

New Analysis of Compartmental Modeling for Epidemic Data of SARS in Beijing,Hong Kong,Taiwan and Singapore and Consideration of Population Prevention/Control Degree

作　　者：于晓寒[1] 王波[1] 唐晓凤[2] 张景霞[1] 谭雅慧[1] 孙慧敏[1] 徐德忠[1] 夏结来[3] 

机构地区：[1]第四军医大学军事预防医学系流行病学教研室,710032 [2]第四军医大学校直门诊部 [3]第四军医大学军事预防医学系卫生统计学教研室

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2013年第2期192-195,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

摘　　要：目的 SARS病毒起源至今未搞清,必须对其流行重新审视;本文提出室模型新的思路,比较四地流行的群体防控度,为重新探讨病毒起源开辟新的模型实践。方法赋予室模型主要参数传播力(Ka)和群体防控力(Ke)新的定义,并提出"群体防控度(Ke/Ka)"新参数;采用NOSA软件进行SARS流行曲线拟合并计算相关参数以相关分析法筛选Ke/Ka的影响因素。结果 Ka和Ke由高到低依次均为新加坡、北京、台湾、香港;Ke/Ka由高到低依次为新加坡、台湾、香港、北京。SARS病毒传入某地区时间越晚,发病人数越少,病例最高峰数值越小,Ke/Ka值越大,提示对抗传播和流行的综合力度越强。结论新参数Ke/Ka能够综合反映传播和防控相互作用的力度;并能为将来揭示SARS病毒起源的新路径提供模型支持。Objective The origin of SARS CoV has not been clarified, and requires further studies on its epidemiological features. In this study, based on compartment models, population prevention/control degrees （Ke/Ka） of SARS CoV in four areas （ Singapore, Beijing, Taiwan, Hong Kong） were fitted and compared, which would provide new ideas for the SARS CoV origination. Methods The major parameters of compartmentmodels were redefined as spreading power（Ka） and population prevention/ control power （ Ke）, and a new parameter, population prevention/control degree（ Ke/Ka）, were first defined to estimate the effect of the SARS Cov prevention and control. SARS epidemic curve was fitted in NOSA software. Risk factors of Ke/Ka were calculated and screened. Results Ka and Ke varied in different areas, with the descending order being Singapore, Beijing,Taiwan, Hong Kong; For Ke/Ka, with the descending order being Singapore,Taiwan,Beijing, Hong Kong. In some area, the less number of SARS CoV infection led to larger Ke/Ka value, which indicating stronger power against SARS CoV spreading. Conclusion The parameter Ke/Ka could be utilized to estimate the interaction between virus spreading and preventing practices, which may be informative for further SARS CoV origination research.

关 键 词：SARS病毒 室模型 群体防控度 SARS病毒起源 

分 类 号：R511.9[医药卫生—内科学]