基于运输时间价值的路径选择行为研究  

A Study of Route Choice Behavior Based on Value of Transit Time

作　　者：陈小君[1] 林晓言[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第2期7-14,共8页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：北京市哲学社会科学规划项目(12JGA013);国家自然科学基金项目(41171113)

摘　　要：随着运输技术进步与出行环境变化,对路径选择模型的改进逐渐引起了学者们的关注。以累积前景理论为基本分析框架,通过引入运输时间价值,构建广义出行成本函数,定义出行成本参照点,构建出行前景值的计算模型,通过算例表明,累积前景理论可以一定程度上克服传统计算方法中出行者"绝对理性"的缺陷,其对路径选择的描述较之数学期望方法更为接近现实情况。从该视角对运输时间价值与路径选择行为间的关系研究可以为交通规划和政策制定奠定坚实的理论基础。With transport technological advancements and travel environment changes, the work of improved route choice behavior model is attracting the attention of scholars. With the cumulative prospect theory as the basic analytical framework and with the introduction of the value of transit time, we aim to build a generalized travel cost function, define travel costs reference point and construct a calculation model for the travel prospects value. The numerical examples show that the cumulative prospect theory can to some extent overcome the ＂absolutely rational＂ defects of the traveller in the traditional methods, and bring its description of route choice closer to the reality than the mathematical expectation. Moreover, from the perspective of the relationship between the value of the transit time and route choice behavior a solid theoretical foundation can be laid for transportation planning and relevant policy making.

关 键 词：路径选择行为 累积前景理论 运输时间价值 广义出行成本 

分 类 号：F502[经济管理—产业经济]