中国果汁出口俄罗斯波动影响因素分析  

Analysis of Fluctuation Factors for China Fruit Juice Exports to Russia

作　　者：霍学喜[1] 赵瑞娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学西部农村发展研究中心,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2013年第2期16-24,共9页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术建设项目(20080107003);国家自然科学基金项目(70973098)

摘　　要：运用中国果汁出口俄罗斯市场的贸易数据（2001～2011年联合国统计署贸易数据库），从出13总量、出13总额、出口品种特征方面，分析中国果汁出口俄罗斯市场的贸易波动状况。运用恒定市场份额模型（CMS），探索中国果汁出口俄罗斯市场的阶段性变化规律。在此基础上，评价影响中国果汁出口俄罗斯市场波动的主要因素及其影响程度、变化趋势。结果表明，决定中国果汁出口波动的主要因素具有阶段性，而且结构效应、竞争效应对中国果汁出口变化的正面影响逐年显著。从品种上看，苹果汁是决定中国对俄果汁出口额增长的主要品种，果蔬混合汁、菠萝汁的竞争效应始终大于橙汁。This paper used China fruit juice export to the Russia trade data （2001-2011 UNcomtrade） from the total export quantity, total export volume, export characteristics to analyze trade fluctuation condi- tion of China fruit juice export to the Russia market, as well as adopts Constant Market Share Model （CMS model） to explore the phase variation rule of the China fruit juice exports to the Russian market. Based on this, evaluates the main factors that impact on the fluctuation of China fruit juice exports to the Russian mar- ket and its degree and trends. The results showed that the main factors which determined the fluctuation of China fruit juice exports to the Russian market with the characteristics of stages.The positive impacts of structural effects and competitive effects to the variation of China fruit juice export were increasing signifi- cant year after year. By analyzing the different fruit juice,the apple juice was the main kind that determines the growth of China fruit juice export volumes. The competitive effects of mixed fruit and vegetable juice and pineapple juice were always stronger than that of the orange juice.

关 键 词：出口波动 影响因素 果汁 俄罗斯 中国 

分 类 号：F752.652[经济管理—国际贸易]