基于ISM的城市脆弱性影响因素研究——以日本城市地震救援恢复为例  

Research of Influential Factors of Urban Vulnerability Based on Interpretative Structural Modeling:A Case Study of Rescue and Recovery in Japan Earthquake

作　　者：佘廉[1] 王光荣[1] 许晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学公共管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2013年第2期84-89,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(91024024)

摘　　要：城市脆弱性受自然环境、经济条件与社会环境等诸多因素影响,且城市脆弱性影响因素之间关系错综复杂。在前人研究基础上,从自然、经济和社会3个维度选取25项影响因素,采用解释结构模型对上述因素进行详细阐述,揭示了影响城市脆弱性的直接因素、间接因素与根本因素的层次脉络:城市结构与功能布局、社会与经济现状直接决定城市灾变敏感性、应对能力与恢复能力高低;在操作层面优化城市的各项功能,实施完善而具体的防灾减灾措施,能间接提高城市应对灾变的防御恢复能力;城市经济总量决定区域范围内脆弱性的总体水平,经济基础是影响城市系统脆弱性的根本因素。最后以日本3.11地震灾害救援恢复为例进行了实证分析。Urban vulnerability is not only affected by natural environment, economic condition and social en- vironment, but also by the complex relationships among these factors. Based on former researches, this paper discloses 25 influential factors of urban vulnerability from the three aspects and constructs interpretative structural mode of urban vulnerability influential factors. And then it detailedly explains intrinsic structure and hierarchy on the basis of ISM ： the layout of the urban structure and function and the economic and social status directly decide urban sensitivity, coping capacity and resilience. Optimization of the urban various functions and implementation of the concrete prevention and mitigation measures can indirectly improve the urban defense capability and resilience. Economic aggregate determines the overall level of urban vulnerability, economy is the fundamental influential factor of urban vulnerability. In light of above analysis, this paper finally studies the case of earthquake of March 11 in Japan.

关 键 词：城市脆弱性 影响因素 解释结构模型 灾害管理 日本 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]