大气可吸入颗粒物对脑血管疾病死亡影响的病例交叉研究  

The impact of ambient particulate matter （PM10） on the population mortality for cerebrovascular diseases-a case-crossover study

作　　者：王旭英[1] 董凤鸣[1] 金明好[2] 潘小川[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系,100191 [2]朝鲜金日成综合大学平壤医科大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2013年第4期331-335,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金（21190051） （感谢北京市海淀区疾病预防控制中心江初主任、业务办公室沈艳辉主任对本课题的支持）

摘　　要：目的分析北京市可吸入颗粒物（PM10）浓度与暴露人群脑血管疾病死亡的相关性，探索PM10对人群脑血管疾病死亡的影响。方法收集2004-2008年北京市某城区气象因素、大气污染物（PM10、SO2、NO2）水平以及人群脑血管疾病死亡数据，采用双向对称性病例交叉设计和条件logistic回归模型，分析大气中PM10水平与脑血管疾病之间的关系。结果调整气象因素（日平均气温和日平均相对湿度）后，单污染物模型PM10的滞后效应不明显。调整SO2、NO2和SO2＋NO2后的多污染物模型，PM10对人群脑血管疾病的效应OR值比单污染物模型大且差异有统计学意义（P〈0．05）。分层分析显示，大气PM10浓度对女性、≥65岁的脑血管疾病和冬季脑血管疾病病例效应差异有统计学意义（P〈0．05），而对男性和≥65岁的脑血管疾病病例效应无统计学意义（P〉0．05）。结论调整其他大气污染物和气象因素后，PM10浓度与脑血管疾病死亡呈正相关。PM10浓度升高会导致女性、≥65岁和冬季脑血管疾病死亡增加。Objective To analyze the association between the concentration of ambient inhalable particulate matter （PM10） and population mortality for cerebrovascular diseases and to explore the impact of PM10 on cerebrovascular diseases. Methods Data including meteorological factors, air pollutants （NO2, SO2 and PM10） and cerebrovascular disease mortality in one district of Beijing from 2004 to 2008 were collected and both symmetric bidirectional case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression model were used to analyze the associations among them. Results After adjusting the influence of meteorological factors as daily average temperature and relative humidity, the single pollutant model showed that there was no significant lag effect. In the multipollutant model, the effect of the every 105.43 μg/m^3 increase of ambient PM10 had a larger impact on the daily death of the cerebrovascular diseases with statistically significant difference （P〈0.05）. The effect of ambient PM10 pollution on daily death of cerebrovascular diseases was significant for females, 65 year-olds and in winter season. Conclusion Our data showed that elevated levels of ambient PMI0 was positively associated with the increase of cerebrovascular disease mortality. The elevated levels of ambient PM10 could lead to the increase of the daily mortality on ccrebrovascular diseases for females, elderly who were 65 or older and in winter seasons.

关 键 词：大气可吸入颗粒物 脑血管疾病 病例交叉研究 

分 类 号：X5[环境科学与工程—环境工程] R74[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]