旅游业可持续发展的系统动力学分析  

Analysis for Sustainable Tourism Development Using System Dynamics

作　　者：章杰宽[1,2] 姬梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西藏民族学院管理学院 [2]陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院

出　　处：《产经评论》2013年第2期52-58,共7页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"西藏地区旅游可持续发展系统的动态仿真理论与应用研究"(批准号71163038;主持人章杰宽);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"基于游客期望;感知与记忆信息链分析的西藏旅游服务神经网络评价模型构建及其应用研究"(批准号12XZJA630001;主持人姬梅)

摘　　要："里约+20"全球可持续发展峰会上提出了"绿色经济"的发展思维,"绿色经济"认为必须抛弃狭隘的经济发展思维定势,应兼顾环境、社会和人权因素等的系统发展。旅游业的本质特征正迎合了"绿色经济"的发展内涵,在此背景下,文章基于系统论的认知,将旅游业可持续发展作为一个系统进行整体研究,并将其分为人口、资源、环境与旅游4个子系统。依托系统动力学工具,文章分别对4个子系统进行了内在关联和动态协调机制的研究,建立了各子系统的系统动力学模型,并给出了反映旅游业可持续发展系统状态特征的微分方程组。研究成果有利于深入理解复杂旅游业可持续发展系统的基本特征,并对未来区域旅游业可持续发展系统的仿真研究提供了一个基本的理论框架。The development thinking of ＂green mit on Sustainable Development. ＂Green economy＂ economy＂ had been proposed at ＂Rio ＋ 20＂ Global Sumthinks of that the mankind must take account of the sys- tematic development of environment, society and human rights instead of abandoning the narrow economic development mindset. The essential characteristic of tourism is right to cater to the development of ＂green economy＂. Therefore, this paper thinks of sustainable tourism development as a whole system which is made up of population subsystem, resources subsystem, environment subsystem and tourism subsystem based on system theory. This paper researches the relations among the components of sustainable tourism development subsys- tems and their dynamic coordination mechanism; establishes a system dynamics model of each subsystem and and the differential equations reflecting the state of the system characteristics of sustainable tourism development. Research results help to understand the basic characteristics of the complex system of sustainable tourism development and provide a basic theoretical framework for the simulation research on future regional sustainable tourism development system.

关 键 词：旅游业 可持续发展系统 系统论 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理] N941[经济管理—产业经济]