基于信息融合的航天发射风险管理  

Research on Risk Management Methods of Spacecraft Launch

作　　者：陆晋荣[1] 董学军[1] 信聪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国酒泉卫星发射中心,甘肃732750

出　　处：《载人航天》2013年第2期17-24,91,共9页Manned Spaceflight

摘　　要：为进一步改进航天发射工程风险管理,以工程风险管理实践为基础,使用持续风险管理理论、证据合成理论和Bayes网络推理理论,建立持续风险管理模型,给出灾难症候获取办法,提出群决策风险评估方法,创建科学表达少数意见的途径,并通过"挑战者"号航天飞机发射爆炸的实例分析验证了所提评估方法的有效性和可行性。To improve and perfect the risk management methods of spacecraft launch engineering, the paper, based on the result of spacecraft launch engineering practice, uses continuous risk management, evidence combination and Bayesian network theory, sets up continuous risk management model, and presents the disaster symptom acquiring approach, and proposes the risk assessment methods of group decision-making, and formulates the way of guaranteeing the identification of the correct minority. Finally, the feasibility and validity of the risk assessment methods are verified by the case analysis of the ＇Challenger＇ Space Shuttle explosion.

关 键 词：航天发射 持续风险管理 风险症候 证据合成 网络推理 

分 类 号：V555[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]