通辽市R_(5d)的气候特征分析  

Analysis on the Climatic Characteristics of R_(5d) in Tongliao City

作　　者：邵学鹏[1] 郭颖[1] 高艳玲[1] 姜秀萍 

机构地区：[1]通辽市气象局,内蒙古通辽028000 [2]开鲁县气象局,内蒙古开鲁028400

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2013年第1期26-28,共3页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：文章利用通辽市境内科尔沁区、开鲁、鲁北、保康、甘旗卡、库伦、大沁他拉七个测站53a(1959—2011年)逐日降水量资料进行通辽市连续5d最大降水量(R5d)的气候特征分析,结果表明,通辽市R5d为减小趋势,在0.05显著性水平以上,倾向率为-4.56mm/10a,各站R5d均为减少趋势,其中库伦、开鲁、科尔沁区的倾向率为-7.0^-5.64mm/10a,减少较为明显;R/S分析结果为,全市及各站均符合赫斯特现象,H指数>0.5,未来将持续减少,其中鲁北、科尔沁区、开鲁的H指数较大,维持减少趋势将较为强劲;M-K突变检测发现,R5d在1965年发生突变,此后UF下降趋势超过了0.001极显著水平。Using the daily precipitation data at seven stations in Tongliao city including Horqin, Kailu, Baokang, Ganqika, Kulun and Daqintala from 1959 to 2010 years, the climatic characteristics of the maximum precipitation for five days （R5d） were analyzed. The results showed that the R5d in Tongliao city was decreased with tendency ratio of -4.56mm/10a more than significance level of 0.05. The R5d are decreasing in all stations, in which the trend rate of Kulun, Kailu and Horqin is -7.0～-5.64mm/10a and more obvious of the reducing trend then other＇s. The R/S analysis results indicates that the whole city and stations are accord with the Hurst phenomenon （H〉0.5） and the H index will decreased continuously in future. Among them, the H index of Lubei, Horqin and Kailu are bigger, they will maintain decreasing trend relatively strong in future. After the mutation of R5d by M-K mutation detection in 1965 years, the UF downtrend is over the significance level of 0.001.

关 键 词：连续5d最大降水量 趋势 未来趋势 突变 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]