制造业上市公司财务危机预警模型  

Research on the Prediction Model of Financial Crisis based on the Method of Principal Components Analysis

作　　者：贾炜莹[1] 申贵成[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院商学院,北京市101149 [2]北京物资学院信息学院,北京市101149

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2013年第5期116-123,共8页China Business and Market

基　　金：北京市属高等学校人才强教深化计划资助项目中青年骨干人才培养计划(项目编号:PHR201008224)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：本文以我国制造业上市公司为研究对象,选取了181家发生财务危机的公司和181家财务正常的公司为样本,以财务危机发生前三年财务指标为基础,首先运用正态性检验、T检验以及非参数检验筛选出预警能力较强的财务指标,然后运用主成分分析方法构建了财务危机预警模型,最后进行了回代检验和测试样本检验。研究结果显示,预警模型对检验样本的预测正确率为76.60%,能够给投资者、债权人和监管机构等相关各方提供预测财务危机的有用信息。An empirical study of 181 companies with and 181 without financial crisis is conducted. Taking financial ratios three years before financial crisis as the basis, the financial ratios with high predictability are selected with the use of normality test, T test and non-parametric test. Then the prediction model is constructed with the method of Principal Components Analysis. The results show that the prediction accuracy of this model on the test data set is 76.60%, and it provides the investors, creditors, regulators and related departments with useful information to predict financial crisis.

关 键 词：财务危机 预警模型 主成分分析法 

分 类 号：F275.5[经济管理—企业管理]