基于时间序列分析的可燃物含水率预测模型  

Prediction Model of Forest Fuel Moisture Based on Time Series Analysis

作　　者：贾鹏超[1] 曲智林[1] 马普龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2013年第5期158-159,共2页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(C200941);黑龙江省博士后科研启动金资助项目(LBH-Q12175)

摘　　要：利用时间序列分析理论建立了可燃物含水率变化预测模型,并将气象因子作为干扰因子引入模型,同时根据试验地观测数据,利用回归分析理论对模型的参数进行了估算,检验结果表明:给出的模型准确率达91.7%(相对误差不超过3%),说明该模型可用于预测可燃物含水率变化。The research was conducted to establish the prediction model of forest fuel moisture by using time series analysis. Me- teorological factors were introduced into the model as interference factors. According to the experimental field of observa- tion data, the model parameters were estimated by regression analysis method. The results show that the model precision is up to 91.7 % （the relative error is less than 3% ）. Therefore, the model can be used to predict forest fuel moisture.

关 键 词：可燃物 含水率 时间序列分析 模型 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]